What the XR Industry in 2025 Can Learn from the Mobile Revolution of 2010
The Déjà Vu Moments of a Technology Revolution
everything reminded me of a time my team and I experienced intensely 15 years ago: the mobile revolution of 2010.
Back then, I founded and built the M-Days as the largest event for the mobile industry in DACH region.
Younger Version of Carsten Szameitat
With 4,500 visitors and 180 exhibitors, Frankfurt became the epicenter of an industry that was about to change the world. Our successful exit to Messe Frankfurt proved that we had perfectly captured the zeitgeist of an emerging industry.
Today, in 2025, we find ourselves in a strikingly similar situation – only this time it’s about Extended Reality (XR), Augmented Reality (AR), and Virtual Reality (VR). AWE 2025 even announced: “XR JUST WENT MAINSTREAM” – a statement that transported me directly back to 2010.
The Parallel Worlds of 2010 and 2025
Platform Giants Establishing Their Ecosystems
2010 – Mobile: Apple had just revolutionized the App Store and proudly announced over 3 billion downloads. The iOS ecosystem was still young but already defining the rules of the entire industry. Meanwhile, Google was fighting for market share with its Android system and strategic partnerships like the Nexus One with HTC.
2025 – XR: Meta continues to dominate the VR market with its Quest series, while Apple expands its premium ecosystem with the Vision Pro and visionOS 26. However, the major breakthrough comes from Google with Android XR, presented as a mainstream push at Google I/O 2025. Meanwhile, companies like 8th Wall establish themselves as platforms for WebAR experiences, enabling developers to access XR without hardware barriers.
Market Forecasts Show Explosive Growth Potential
2010 – Mobile: The smartphone market was on the verge of exponential growth. No one could predict that mobile apps would become a trillion-dollar industry.
2025 – XR: The numbers are impressive: The global VR market will grow to $187.40 billion by 2030 with an annual growth rate of 42.05%. The AR/VR headset market is expected to reach $261.92 billion by 2034. These are growth rates reminiscent of the early smartphone days.
The Developer Community Faces Similar Challenges
2010 – Mobile: Developers faced the challenge of fragmentation between iOS and Android. Monetization models were still uncertain, and no one knew exactly which apps would be successful.
2025 – XR: The situation repeats itself with startling accuracy. Developers must choose between various XR platforms: Meta’s Quest Store, Apple’s Vision Pro App Store, the new Android XR, WebXR standards, or specialized platforms. The XR landscape of 2025 shows similar fragmentation to the mobile world of 2010.
Applying 2010’s Success Formulas to XR 2025
1. The Breakthrough: Hardware Becomes Mainstream-Ready
The Parallel: In 2010, the iPhone 4 finally made smartphones attractive to the mainstream – design, usability, and price were right.
XR 2025: Apple is working on cheaper Vision models for late 2025/early 2026, Meta continuously improves the Quest series, and Pico is already selling hundreds of devices each month.
2. AI as a Game-Changer
The Difference: What was missing in 2010, XR has in 2025: Artificial Intelligence as a catalyst. AWE 2025 was characterized by AI integration, which drastically simplifies development and enables personalized experiences.
3. Focus on Enterprise Adoption
2010 – Mobile: BlackBerry still dominated the business market, but iOS and Android quickly conquered it.
2025 – XR: Enterprise XR is going mainstream. Companies in healthcare, manufacturing, and training are already using XR productively – no longer just as pilot projects.
Critical Success Factors for 2025
1. Solving the Ecosystem Problem
The 2010 Lesson: Apple won not just through better hardware, but through a coherent ecosystem of hardware, software, services, and developer tools.
XR 2025: Google’s Android XR could be the game-changer that ends fragmentation. Like Android in 2010, it could become the open alternative to Apple’s closed system.
2. Revolutionizing Content Discovery
2010: The App Store revolutionized not just distribution, but also app discoverability.
2025: XR urgently needs better discovery mechanisms. Neither Meta’s Store nor Apple’s Vision Pro App Store have yet solved the problem that users don’t know what XR experiences exist.
3. Prioritizing Developer Experience
The Parallel: iOS won in 2010 because developers could be successful and profitable there.
XR 2025: Platforms like 8th Wall show how WebAR can democratize development. The winners will be those who make developers’ lives easiest.
Why 2025 Is the Decisive Year
The Convergence Is Perfect
2025 sees a unique convergence:
Hardware: Finally mainstream-ready and affordable
Software: Mature development tools and platforms
AI: Simplifies development and improves user experience
5G/6G: Enables cloud-based XR experiences
Use Cases: Both enterprise and consumer find concrete applications
The Smartphone Analogy Becomes Reality
The assessment by XR experts is clear: 2025 is XR’s “smartphone moment.” Just as the iPhone changed the computing landscape from 2007-2010, XR is facing the same breakthrough.
Concrete Action Recommendations for 2025
For Companies:
Invest now: Like mobile apps in 2010, there’s a limited window for first-mover advantages
Think ecosystem: Individual XR apps won’t suffice – build connected experiences
Bet on standards: WebXR and open platforms will prevail in the long term
For Developers:
Learn from 2010: The most successful mobile developers started in 2009/2010 – now is the same moment for XR – but keep it simple and scalable.
Use AI tools: Just as app development frameworks shortened development time then, AI tools do so drastically today
Cross-platform first: Fragmentation is the enemy of reach
For Investors:
Infrastructure plays: Just as the picks-and-shovels strategy worked for mobile infrastructure in 2010, XR tools and platforms offer the best opportunities
Developer tools: The next Unity, Xcode, or Android Studio of the XR world are being created now
The Outlook: 2026 and Beyond
If the parallels to 2010 hold true, we’ll experience the explosive growth phase in 2026-2028. The forecasts for the XR market until 2030 of $200+ billion are not exaggerated – they’re reminiscent of the seemingly incredible smartphone predictions of that time.
Conclusion: History Rhymes
The parallels between Mobile 2010 and XR 2025 are too clear to ignore. The same dynamics – platform wars, developer ecosystems, hardware adoption curves, enterprise penetration – are repeating with remarkable precision.
The big difference: In 2025, we have the advantage of experience. We know which strategies work, which pitfalls to avoid, and how quickly markets can develop.
AWE 2025 put it maybe right: “XR has finally gone mainstream.” Exactly as we experienced with mobile in 2010.
Those who heed the lessons from back then and act today will be the winners of the next computing revolution.
Based on my experience building M-Days 2004 and current market observation of the XR industry in 2025.
Sources:
About Post Author
